The highest I could find was 82,786 primaries (5.6%) for Horace Nock (NSW), the sole Country Party candidate at #3 on a mixed UAP/Country ticket in 1943. Between 1940-1949 down-ticket candidates exceeded 3% a total of fifteen times in the mainland states, while in Tasmania it was so common that in both 1943 and 1946 every single non-#1 candidate did it. However, such comparisons are misleading. What Might 2PP Voting Intention Have Really Looked... Seat Betting As Bad As Anything Else At Predicting... Jim Molan's Senate Result In Historic Context. This meant that a voter would not have to number any more boxes if voting for a candidate below number 1 on a party list, as if they were voting for the top candidate. In South Australia, the vote for Centre Alliance collapsed, with a drop in the primary vote of 19% on the 2016 high under the leadership of Nick Xenophon, while Greens senator Sarah Hanson-Young has again defied predictions to be returned. In Queensland, the Senate vote reflected the lower house vote with a swing to the Liberal party and away from Labor. How will Anthony Albanese go as Labor leader? ), Non-Custodial Parents Party (Equal Parenting), Australian Labor Party (Northern Territory) Branch. The division into above the line and below the line boxes has existed since 1984, but from 1984 to 2013 voting below the line required numbering pretty much all the boxes with very few errors in order for a vote to be formal. But his result is still very significant - in the state in which getting a high below-the-line vote is most difficult (because of historically low below the line rates and also the sheer scale required for an individual campaign), Molan has so far polled just over. This table is sortable by selecting on column headers. Jim Molan concedes defeat, admits he won’t get a Senate seat Jim Molan has conceded defeat and acknowledges he won’t get a Senate seat despite a divisive campaign urging people to vote below-the-line. Also, bucking the party ticket tended to be a small state thing. In all the years from 1940 onwards, there was never a case of a candidate below #1 on a ticket polling even 100,000 primaries. (July 2018), "Margin Of Error" Polling Myths (Aug 2018), The Importance Of Keeping #politas On Topic (July 2018), Polling And The Mt Wellington Cable Car (2014 onwards, rolling post), The Keating Aggregation 1990-3 (March 2018), LegCo Voting Patterns 2014-8 (March 2018), What Happened When The Previous Government Moved To Change Tasmania's Donations Laws (March 2018), How Often Are Federal Newspolls Released? Both Labor and the Liberals gained a swing in South Australia as a result of the Centre Alliance collapse. No candidate outside Tasmania was the subject of a significant BTL campaign like Molan was. Since Senate reform was passed prior to the 2016 election, Molan's c. 3% vote has been the highest for any down-ticket mainland candidate, and it will also be the highest below-the-line vote for any candidate outside Tasmania or the ACT. These results are final. Indeed a tactical trick used by the major parties at times was to deliberately place a popular candidate last on the ticket. Labor’s Lisa Singh successfully campaigned below the line in 2016. In the years up til the introduction of group ticket voting in 1984, I found only three further mainland state cases: Dame Nancy Buttfield (Lib, SA, 1964), Dame Dorothy Tangney (ALP, WA, 1967) and Ronald Maunsell who somehow escaped a knighthood for his efforts (NCP, Qld, 1980). However, former United Australia Party senator Jacqui Lambie is on track to win a seat back in the senate for Tasmania, after she was made ineligible as a result of her dual citizenship.

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